Quote of the day
7.18.2011 Leave a comment
The tension is building in the budget talks as the calendar closes in on the Aug. 2 drop-dead date. According to Treasury Secretary Geithner, this is the date where the government would no longer have the money to pay its bills and a default on the debt would be looming.
As many have noted, including me, a default on the debt would be an absolute disaster for the financial system. We would see the same sort of freeze up of lending as we did after the collapse of Lehman in September of 2008; although this time would almost certainly be much worse.
With U.S. government debt no longer the rock-solid pillar of the world financial system, banks would instantly lose much of their capital. They would not only have to write-down the value of government debt, but also all the assets backed by the government, like Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities.
This would almost certainly push the major banks into insolvency. J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and the rest would suddenly be back in the welfare line. And any rescue would almost certainly not restore them to their former strength and profitability like the last one did. If the government defaulted on its debt, Wall Street would take a shellacking and it would never again be the center of world finance.
This is why we knew all along that the Republicans in Congress were not serious about their threats over allowing the government to default. While these people might be happy to kick poor people in the face, to take hard-earned wages and benefits away from working people, and to shove retirees out onto the street, the Republican congressional leadership is not about to cross Wall Street. After all, who pays for the campaigns?
This meant that the Republicans were always going to fold if President Obama didn’t cave. The only question was when and how.
Obviously Baker does not think much of the Republican’s commitment to an abstract principle like fiscal responsibility:
The idea that Republicans in Congress were going to force big cuts in the country’s most important programs — Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — by taking Wall Street hostage with the debt ceiling is absurd. It was only necessary for President Obama to call their bluff.
The bottom line is that the debt ceiling is a gun pointed first and foremost at Wall Street’s head. And, there is no way on earth that Wall Street is going to let the Republicans pull the trigger.
- Would McConnell plan punt debt solution? (politico.com)
- What happens to markets if the US defaults? (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- What Will Happen To Markets If The U.S. Defaults? (huffingtonpost.com)
- The Giant Disconnect Between Wall Street and Washington (theatlantic.com)
- DEBT CEILING: The Giant Disconnect Between Wall Street And Washington (businessinsider.com)
- McConnell Blinks on Debt Ceiling (slog.thestranger.com)
- Who gets paid if hysteria over deficit spending wins out? (dailykos.com)
- One week to Armageddon – still no agreement on US debt (politics.ie)