The high job-seekers to jobs-available ratio

The ratio remains above 4:1, as the Economic Policy Institute reports. So, job seekers need to gird themselves to wait the long wait.

JOLTS for August, 2011

What does this fact mean? First, it means that Congress must extend unemployment compensation eligibility beyond the 99 week term currently in place. Second, it means that Congress and the Executive must quickly produce a jobs program that reduces this ratio. Third, it means securing Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid against the work of the political and economic reactionaries. Fourth, it means the United States would be better served if it returned to something better than “welfare as we knew it.” Fifth, it means a return to stimulus politics. And sixth, it means making a national commitment to a green-friendly reindustrialization program.

Budget cuts and pain sharing

Catherine Rampell of The New York Times delivers a gloomy prediction:

If the economy falls back into recession, as many economists are now warning, the bloodletting could be a lot more painful than the last time around.

Given the tumult of the Great Recession, this may be hard to believe. But the economy is much weaker than it was at the outset of the last recession in December 2007, with most major measures of economic health — including jobs, incomes, output and industrial production — worse today than they were back then. And growth has been so weak that almost no ground has been recouped, even though a recovery technically started in June 2009.

After reciting the kinds of pain a demand constrained economy can impose on a people, Rampell goes on to note:

There is at least one factor, though, that could make a second downturn feel milder than the first: corporate profits. Corporate profits are at record highs and, adjusted for inflation, were 22 percent greater in the first quarter of this year than they were in the last quarter of 2007.

Nervous about the future of the economy, corporations are reluctant to make big investments like hiring. As a result, they are sitting on a lot of cash.

While this may not be much comfort to the nation’s 13.9 million unemployed workers, it may be to their employed counterparts.

Do you find it hopeful knowing that America’s corporations are sitting on a lot of cash, money they might use to retain part of their labor force? I do not. Eventually, the American economy will need to grow if it is to master the unemployment and private debt problems. Growth, however welcomed it would be, should not be expected from a stagnating demand constrained economy during a time of politically imposed austerity.

Real Americans do cry in their beer

Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs chides Tea Party leaders for whining:

What I don’t get: Tea Party leaders wished out loud for the US to default on its debt payments, so why are they whining now when people blame them for the S&P downgrade?

I mean, they didn’t get everything they wanted; they didn’t get to cause a full-fledged economic disaster. But they did manage to force the first US credit downgrade in history, and that’s not too shabby. Maybe next time the apocalypse.

Forbes and Summers dismiss S&P’s recent credit grade

As reported by Politico (h/t Glenn Greenwald). First, Steve Forbes

…called the S&P’s downgrade of the United States Friday night from AAA to a AA+ an “outrageous” move. He argued that the downgrade wasn’t necessary since the government would be able to pay the interest and principal on bonds.

“I’m surprised Standard & Poor’s would play politics,” Forbes said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Larry Summers

…echoed Forbes’s thoughts and said the United States would be able to pay its debts. He noted that mega-investor Warren Buffett encouraged buying U.S. bonds.

“Look, Standard & Poor’s track record has been terrible, and its arithmetic is worse,” Summers said. “So there’s nothing good to say about what they’ve done.”

Keith Olbermann on the Debt Deal

N.B.: The United States is not a dictatorship — yet.

Quotes of the Day

As one would expect, yesterday’s stock market plunge elicited a broad response. Here are a few of the first-responders whose comments were mostly directed towards the United States:

Paul Krugman wrote an “I told you so” column:

In case you had any doubts, Thursday’s more than 500-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average and the drop in interest rates to near-record lows confirmed it: The economy isn’t recovering, and Washington has been worrying about the wrong things.

It’s not just that the threat of a double-dip recession has become very real. It’s now impossible to deny the obvious, which is that we are not now and have never been on the road to recovery.

Steve Pearlstein asked: “Why is this happening?” His “Short answer: Because we never really fixed underlying structural problems in the U.S. and global economies that had been building for decades and caused the financial and economic crisis in 2008.” (Pearlstein then goes on to recommend an IMF-style structural adjustment program for the United States, a policy choice that, if implemented, would turn a tragedy into a global catastrophe.)

Martin Weisberg looked at America, specifically, at Washington, DC, and found a political catastrophe that will have enduring economic consequences:

It is difficult to remember a more dismal moment in American politics. The debt ceiling crisis and the agreement that ended it point to deep dysfunction in our system. In a variety of ways, the episode portends continued short-term economic misery and long-term national decline. It is as if the US chose at the last minute not to commit financial suicide — but only out of preference for a slower, more excruciating form of self-destruction.

The crisis has, however, been clarifying in several respects. We can now say with some confidence that Washington will be doing nothing more to help the ailing economy. President Barack Obama is trying to push an employment agenda. But for the federal government to spur growth or create jobs, it has to spend additional money. The antediluvian Republicans who control Congress do not think that demand can be expanded in this way. They believe that the 2009 stimulus bill, which prevented an even worse economy over the past two years, is responsible for the current weakness. Their approach of depression economics — embedded in the debt ceiling compromise — demands that we address the risk of a double-dip recession by cutting public expenditure immediately.

So instead of trying to pull out of the stall, the US economy will simply have to absorb whatever blow is coming.

Ezra Klein made these remarks about the clarity of vision found within America’s Versailles on the Potomac:

A dramatic gap has opened between the economy as Washington sees it — and wants to intervene in it — and the economy that exists. Whatever weak recovery we might have hoped for is being hindered by global commodity prices, consumer deleveraging, fears of flagging demand in emerging markets, earthquakes in Asia and much more. Globally, it’s been an almost uninterrupted run of crises and bad luck. Meanwhile, Washington just spent two months arguing over whether it would pay its bills or spark an unnecessary financial crisis.

I confess that I find it difficult to avoid spoiling myself with a bit of Schadenfreude over this recent stock market outcome. I have indulged myself because the stock market plunge aptly punctuates the ridiculous political calamity that was the Debt Ceiling Debate. The political elite wanted us to believe that addressing the deficit by cutting spending during a recession was the reasonable, adult and necessary solution for the country to adopt. Nevertheless, the stock market concluded otherwise. Market instability such as this brings with it a portentous expectation of another recession in the United States and around the world. Life could become riskier and harsher than it had been if another recession follows. Disaster capitalism indeed.

In conclusion, I will quote Bill Mitchell who stated what ought to be obvious to everyone but which is mostly ignored in the classless society found the United States:

My phone has been ringing a lot with journalists seeking my views on what is going on and radio stations lining up interviews and “news grabs”. There is a sense out there that we are sliding backwards quickly into financial collapse and recession. I sensed some panic today among the press. And they won’t believe me when I tell them it is a crisis but a totally confected crisis that has origins in class conflict (the top-end-of-town seeking ways to get more of the real output for themselves).