Thanks! El Niño

hurricane-prediction-2014

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2014 should prove to have an average number of hurricanes. The key reasons: Cooler water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the emergence of an El Niño weather event, which diminishes the conditions needed to gestate hurricanes at an above average rate.

Of course, only one hurricane is needed to produce another remarkable disaster. That hurricane needs only to pass over a densely populated land mass.

Quote of the day

Mark Fischetti of Scientific American addressed the question of the hour:

If you’ve followed the U.S. news and weather in the past 24 hours you have no doubt run across a journalist or blogger explaining why it’s difficult to say that climate change could be causing big storms like Sandy. Well, no doubt here: it is.

The hedge expressed by journalists is that many variables go into creating a big storm, so the size of Hurricane Sandy, or any specific storm, cannot be attributed to climate change. That’s true, and it’s based on good science. However, that statement does not mean that we cannot say that climate change is making storms bigger. It is doing just that — a statement also based on good science, and one that the insurance industry is embracing, by the way.

Drill, baby, drill….